Foresight as a strategic longterm planning tool for. Article pdf available in international journal of innovation and technology. Strategic foresight efforts at both the broad contextual and sectorspecific levels can interlink and reinforce each other as part of an ongoing system of integrating futures thinking into policymaking. Highlights from the strategic foresight initiative. Strategic foresight group expresses its gratitude to the swedish international development cooperation agency sida for supporting this project. Part 1 leadership and learning are indispensible to each other. Nine techniques for business and intelligence analysis. Companies and markets without this foundation and foresight are far more likely to get lost, stuck, or wrecked. Among the brics nations brazil, russia, india, china and south africa, foresight programmes at the government level are increasingly common. First, strategic foresight, a discipline i describe in more detail, provides the vitally needed mindsets and frameworks required to plan in uncertainty. Strategic foresight activities allow companies to identify weak signals of change and react to opportunities and threats in their environment. Scenarios, as a prime technique for future studies. Execute the strategic plan and measure the results of initiatives and actions. Foresight is a strategic thinking capability, so the use of foresight methodologies occurs at this first stage of the strategy development process that is, the use of foresight methodologies seeks to expand the perception of the range of strategic.
In honor of world future day, which is celebrated annually worldwide on march 1st, we are sharing our favorite foresight terms all month long to raise awareness of strategic foresight. Given the need for a systemic approach to strategic planning, the paper proposes a. The cone of plausibility can assist your strategic. Imagine strategic foresight and operational excellence in a yinyang relationship. Analysts and decision makers can use nine different strategic foresight techniques to anticipate the outcome s of struggles in such places as syria or the. It is worth investigating your organizations synthesis of these two attributes. Capture feedback on the accuracy of the strategic plan. The future is unknowable, yet we choose to devote a lot of resources and effort to discussing and studying possibilities before we make decisions about new directions or new investments.
However, the analysis and views expressed in this report are of the strategic foresight group only and do not in any way. Bengston, strategic foresight group, northern research station, u. To this end, we will focus deeply on the basics of strategic foresight was created for the purpose of dealing with uncertainty, so our first objective this year is to ensure that participants leave with a strong skills, as well as strategies to adapt or transform to meet emerging conditions as they unfold. It serves as a roadmap that defines the direction a company must travel, and that helps leaders prepare for potential roadblocks. Pdf the concept of strategic foresight has come to dominate contemporary. Strategic foresight and innovation in the global economy by alexander manu companies constantly present technological developmentsnew materials, new mechanisms, and new ways to enhance existing products and services. Below, we elaborate on the five strategic foresight methods that are taught in the class and explain how they are applied for bmi. Adam gordon, an instructor on aalto university executive educations strategic foresight program, the problem with forecasting lies not so much in the quality of the data analytics but in a fundamental misunderstanding about where quantitative analysis is an appropriate tool for inquiry and where techniques for qualitative. In broad terms, strategic foresight can be practiced on three levels. Linking strategic foresight attitudes and activities aids leader to integrate the long and shortterm. Advantages and disadvantages of scenario approaches for. It focuses on generating analyses of possible futures and alternative strategies, based on available intelligence. A consideration of possible futures alternative futures and of probable futures forecasts, predictions is important to developing a preferred future plan, even the simple mental plans made prior to taking an action. Framing, scanning, forecasting, visioning, planning, and.
Strategic foresight is wellestablished in many advanced economies, including the european union, japan and singapore. A strategic plan is a management tool that serves the purpose of helping an organization do a better job, and it improves organizations because a. In the first phase of the analysis, product properties are clarified. Elements of national security strategy atlantic council. Strategic foresight is a bland term for a great idea. Cost of n c on water c s m e strategic foresight group. In the authors experience a fact of corporate life is that. As we noted, in a vuca world accurate prediction is an illusion. Instead, strategic foresight is about better preparedness for different futures that are all possible and plausible. The following provides a summary of csfs work in 20172018. There is also evidence of a growing number of foresight exercises in latin america and. Foresight conference 2017 the biennial singapore foresight week is the flagship event for the foresight. Strategic foresight and innovation in the global economy. Strategic foresight is an element of futurology and a concept under the strategic planning umbrella.
Building on the discussions at the previous sfa workshops in cadiz and budapest, the aim of this workshop was. Some recommendations are given for the development of quality assurance measures for foresight products. Kennedy this quote by former president kennedy addresses one of the essential elements of effective leadership. Using strategic foresight to design the future customer. The tools and methods of strategic foresight, detailed below, have been developed specifically to provide this.
Second in a twopart series elements of a strategic plan. Elements of a strategic plan a plan spells out where an organization is going over the next year or more and how it is going to get there. Identify adjustments needed in strategic goals or other elements of the strategic. Principles for thinking about the future and foresight. Wcq 2017 edition, strategic foresight group sfg uses a framework of different parameters to measure the level of cooperation between riparian countries such as agreement, exchange of data, water infrastructure, and political commitment.
The cone of plausibility is meant to graphically represent the relationship between the present moment in time and the. Strategic foresight and operational excellence strategic foresight and operational excellence are two mutually reinforcing capabilities that every organization has at its disposal. Introduction to foresight and foresight processes in practice note for the phd course strategic foresight in engineering andersen, per dannemand. Holder of the chair of strategic foresight at the conservatoire national des arts.
Strategic foresight is a collaborative effort of the emergency management community facilitated by the federal emergency management agency fema. The course, sfmba 670 strategic foresight studio, was held in the fall of 2015 in the california college of the arts cca strategic foresight mba sfmba program. The report is designed to provide an overview of key strategic issues relevant to the future of california communities and museums. It is the very first exercise of its kind to measure the. This article provides a firsthand account of the design, execution, and outcomes of a course in experiential futures. The detailed analysis will show how foresight fits to a fundamental model of sciences and reveals possible deficits and perils. Strategic foresight calls for a systematic analysis of identifying. Pdf strategic foresight for collaborative exploration of new.
Introduction to foresight and foresight processes in. Strategic planning puts you behind the steering wheel. Strategic foresight training for an era of accelerating. The imperative of strategic foresight to strategic thinking 23 at an epistemological and ontological level. Building a system of strategic foresight in government requires putting in place the elements. The imperative of strategic foresight to strategic thinking. Maximizing the power of strategic foresight washington. Unlike management, the leadership relationship cannot be delegated or automated. The following research report is based on an adaptation of a common foresight tool. Andy hines in his article, strategic foresight, identifies six critical steps to develop the foresight you need to navigate in this rapidly changing environment.
Strategic foresight analysis sfa north africa and the. Strategic foresight is not about better predictions of the future. Implement strategic foresight with elements of the us army. Foresight is a strategic thinking capability, so the use of foresight methodologies occurs at this first stage of the strategy development process that is, the use of foresight methodologies seeks to expand the perception of the range of strategic options available to an organisation. This article is based on content presented at the strategic foresight summit 2018, organized earlier this year by futures platform. A conceptual system of leadership for change michael maccoby, phd, tim scudder, cpa there is only one irrefutable definition of a leader. Five strategic foresight tools applied to business modelling the five strategic foresight tools that we use are based on our experiences as instructors, and play a crucial role in. Principles for thinking about the future and foresight education david n. This glossary is jointly published by the centre for strategic futures and. Five strategic foresight tools to enhance business model. Strategic foresight was launched so the emergency management community can seek to understand how the world is changing, and how those changes may affect the future of emergency management. Advantages and disadvantages of scenario approaches 221 speak for itself in terms of its purpose. Therefore, leadership is a relationship between the leader and the led. There are as many strategic foresight types as there are needs.
Whats your futuresix steps for gaining strategic foresight. Foresight evolved then as means to provide a common approach and thus provided a basis of comparison to how. The benefits of strategic foresight planning kreischer. Forest service, united states department of agriculture, 1992 folwell avenue, st. Nevertheless, there are three areas, which are defined for each system. Peter bishop, chair of the studies of the future program at the university of houston. The second is to demonstrate how foresight disciplines to give futures their formal name can address the risks created by these assumptions. This requires a different set of evaluative processes that what is currently available in most design thinking tool kits. Strategic foresight is generally focused at the mid or longterm time frame. On some fundamental methodological aspects in foresight.
Learning from the future through scenario planning michael j blyth four scenes pty ltd march 2005 decisions made today are usually for an uncertain future. Strategic foresight october 2019 strategic foresight for. Strategic thinking and strategic planning are concepts that are not clearly defined both in the literature and in the practice of business organizations and sometimes they are used interchangeably. At the same time, practical application of government foresight in strategic. To find out more about the concepts, tools or processes defined in this glossary and how they have been used in singapore, please contact the centre for strategic futures. As threats seem to be multiplying as the 30 th anniversary of the cold war ends, paul stockton offers his view on how we can seek to identify issues and potential paths to successfully continuing our military missions in this difficult world. Strategic planning always includes analysis, but it may or may not involve serious foresight on the way to developing a plan, or taking an action. This article offers leaders elements of the us armys operational art model to easily apply when looking long and acting shortterm. Introduction to strategic foresight future motions.987 1508 490 588 965 704 693 1382 848 413 921 1574 1035 2 137 1303 151 1188 1403 1129 1235 1056 339 603 1070 1441 1298 1234 11 813